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  • 執筆者の写真Beyond Media

[Original] 経済回復の道のりは長い?-- モルスタレポート分析

writer Randy Wagenheim Chief Columnist of Beyond Media


このレポートはいま、アメリカで議論されている Reopen(外出禁止令の解禁)についてのひとつの指針となるだろう。



ふたつめは11月から 12月頃に感染の第2派が発生する可能性があると予測しているが、現在のピークよりも深刻ではないとみている。全体として、この遅めのReopenと、2番目の感染ピークを考慮し、モルガン・スタンレーのエコノミストは、経済がCOVID19より前のレベルに戻るのに、2021年の第4四半期まではかかるだろうと予測している。


Morgan Stanley chief biotech analyst is Matthew Harrison, his report is picked up by finanical media today.  The graphic from his report shown on a FT correspondent's twitter here:

This is about the projected timeline to open the US economy, and trajectory for this calamity in the US in general.

2 key points from this report are:

  1. He expects New York will peak "over the next 3-5 days, but rest of the US to follow slowly, trailing the coastal cities by around three weeks."  The expectation is the US outbreak will last 4x longer than China and 2x longer Italy driven by slow uptake of social distancing measures and lack of robust testing.  This means initial US reopening on track for mid-to-late May at the earliest.

  2. He forecasts a potential second wave of infections that could strike around November/December, which they hope will be less severe than the current peak.   Overall this slow return and delayed second peak has led Morgan Stanley's US economists to forecast a return to pre-COVID-19 levels not until 4Q 2021. 

It's important for people to at least some rough clarity about trajectory like this.  Morgan Stanley has hundreds of billions $ AUM so it is as valuable of forecasting right now as any.





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