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  • 執筆者の写真Beyond Media

[original] 原油価格急落の背景

writer Randy Wagenheim Chief Columnist of Beyond Media



●Roger Diwan (Vice President@ IHSMarkit )



●Kyle Bass (Hayman Capital Management Founder)


●Paul Sankey (Mizuho America)






Regarding oil price:  One clear summation is the tweets today (8 parts) from Roger Diwan.

Key point is the surplus of oil due to a demand collapse.  There's simply nowhere to store the oil, and the nature of this May contract is that it requires the physical ownership of oil, so you must have a physical storage facility to take ownership of the oil.  In the US, storage for oil is full.  So until demand is restored (either via the virus stopping or public policy changing), the problem persists.Negative prices are the reflection of dire market conditions for producers, with the hope that demand restarts before the middle of May and that the June contract does not face the same fate. 

It is also insightful to listen to Kyle Bass commentary on CNBC today.

although he has not written about it on twitter explicitly. 

And also Paul Sankey from Mizuho Americas (New York) warned this precise thing would happen back in January on CNBC.  Exactly precisely right.

And then Paul Sankey reiterated about a Month ago same, it was covered by Fox Business.

-These are the key points as discussed today when it came to reality-"Saudi Arabia recently slashed oil prices and raised output after Russia refused to join OPEC in deepening production cuts.Oil is a 100 million barrel-per-day market, but Sankey says it’s possible that the economic fallout from the pandemic could zap demand, creating a 20 million barrel-per-day surplus.He says the “physical reality” of the market is that oil is pumped out of the ground and has to be consumed or stored. When the cost of storage goes high enough -- or space runs out -- companies might pay customers to take it."





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